Blame it on the weatherman

"The atmosphere is a bigger mystery than anyone will admit. Simple example: No one can say for sure if global warming will result in more clouds, or fewer clouds." - Kenner.

"Wait a minute." Evans said. "Global warming is going to raise the temperature, so more moisture will evaporate from the ocean, and more moisture means more clouds."

"That's one idea. But higher temperature also means more water vapor in the air and therefore fewer clouds."

"So which is it?"

"Nobody knows."

"Then how do they make computer models of the climate?"

Kenner smiled. "As far as cloud cover is concerned, they guess."

"They guess?"

"Well, they don't call it a guess. They call it an estimate, or parameterization, or an approximation. But if you on't understand something, you can't approximate it. You're really just guessing."

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I'll admit, I'm a Michael Crichton fan. I really enjoyed Sphere, even though it caused me about a week's worth of nightmares because I really don't like being underwater, especially in the ocean. I think he's a wonderful writer, and I really enjoy his writing style because it is so easy to follow. A lot of writers these days go very detailed and descriptive when it isn't relevant or necessary to the storyline. I think his writing is especially useful in science fiction where people can get wrapped up in the technology/science that they forget the storyline and the characters. The storyline is compelling, even though I don't think the characters develop or change much besides in their beliefs. We do see that Peter becomes more questioning, but overall is pretty static.

But relevant to the quote that typed at the beginning of the post, weather, the atmosphere, and things relevant to those areas are pretty murky waters. The fact is we don't know exactly how this works. And Crichton reiterates it on the first page of the author's message, first bullet point (page 715). Predicting the weather is tricky business, especially over the long-term. That's why no one really pays attention to meteorologists (except the very cute Sven Sundgaard <3). It's a black box in the sense that no one but meteorologists know what they're talking about.

Michael Crichton admits that carbon dioxide levels are rising, and it's probably due to human effect (author's message). But he says that we shouldn't raise the alarm about it quite yet because it's all so circumstantial. And I have to say I tend to agree with him (probably my own bias). He's seeing this issue through the fact that most citizens think global warming is real, but no one can say the exact effects. The media has a tendency to latch onto things and take them to extremes and exaggerate. I think if we take anything from the book, it is the need to question anything we are presented a fact, especially if it will cost us a lot of money.